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Exploring the future of mobility in 2040

How will people move around in 2040? In a joint effort between Futurice and eight different organizations from public sector, industry, and academia, we researched trends and co-created different possible scenarios for what mobility will look like in 2040. Our common aim was to identify opportunities and risks for our clients as well as society at large, in order to improve decision-making today.

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Triptych showing urban mobility: traffic jam, cyclists in a historic street, smartwatch with bicycle display, and person in profile.

Four future scenarios

We invite you to experience four scenarios on the future of passenger mobility in 2040, focused on western European urban areas. Each scenario has been created through a combination of current developments and trends, extrapolated into the future. You can explore all scenarios in more detail to understand how we could get there and what would be potential implications.

  • Futuristic sports cars in heavy traffic on a city highway at sunset, with modern architecture alongside the road.

    Baseline Scenario: Business-as-usual

    What if current developments continued at the same pace and in the same direction without any disruption?

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  • Bustling European city street with cyclists and pedestrians, historic buildings and a Gothic cathedral in the distance.

    Scenario 1: Active Mobility

    What if private cars were replaced by privately owned forms of micro- and minimobility while cities decentralize?

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  • Smartwatch displaying bicycle on screen with city skyline at sunset, with actual bicycle blurred in background.

    Scenario 2: Mobility-as-a-service paradigm

    What if open traffic data platforms and new business models enabled a seamless sync between public and private mobility services across different means of transport?

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  • Person with upswept hair in car viewing tablet with futuristic cityscape, wearing wireless earpiece against blurred city lights.

    Scenario 3: Autonomous-car takeover

    What if privately owned autonomous vehicles were available on the mass market and able to communicate with enhanced infrastructure and other vehicles?

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The future of mobility 2040

Our scenario report takes a deeper look at the data and ecosystems, citizens, technology and infrastructure in each of the four scenarios, based on extensive, crowdsourced research and analysis.

Download our report
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